2012年1月16日星期一

And those lucky few who attended

Those of us who watched and kvetched and tweeted from home somehow got through three hours of prizes, plugs and acceptance speeches moncler jackets that managed to be both hurried and dull.

And those lucky few who attended, somehow made it past host Ricky Gervais’ nasty arrows — most of which, actually, either seemed to miss their marks, or to have been fitted with rubber tips.

But what does any of it mean, as far as this year’s Oscar race goes?

The Golden Globes are awarded by foreign journalists — and considering how they once gave a prestigious prize to Pia Zadora, let’s put quotes around the word “journalists.” Besides, they’re not Academy members, which means they don’t even vote on the Oscars.

As for the people who do vote on the Oscars — well, they already have. Ballots were due on Friday. So the nomination process was already over before the first Globe was handed out, and by now it’s all over but for the counting — and the announcements, on Jan. 24.

So, as far as influencing the Oscar moncler jackets nominations goes, um, no, the Globes don’t.

But they can help predict who could already be a frontrunner for one of those nods, and maybe even closing in for the win …

Best supporting actor: Lots of other folks raved about Albert Brooks’ work in “Drive” (it felt a bit hammy to me) but Sunday’s loss seemed to confirm this is not his year. The award to Christopher Plummer in “Beginners,” though, suggests he’s a likely Oscar nominee — and even winner, as this category tends to favor veterans. Other possible contenders for Oscar’s final five — that other veteran, Max von Sydow, for “Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close,” along with Kenneth Branagh for “My Week With Marilyn,” Jonah Hill for “Moneyball” and Ryan Gosling for “Ides of March.”

Best supporting actress: This Oscar category, on the other hand, awards breakout newcomers, not old-timers — which sure fits Octavia Spencer, a Globe winner for “The Help.” Who else will make the Academy’s list? The busy Jessica Chastain, of course, although the sheer volume of her credits last year mean she’s competing against herself. Still, she’ll probably get a nod for “The Help,” too. Other top contenders? Melissa McCarthy for “Bridesmaids,” Berenice Bejo for “The Artist” and perhaps Carey Mulligan for “Shame” (although it would be very nice to see some acknowledgement of Judy Greer’s deft comic work in “The Descendants,” instead).

Best Actor: Because the Globes, unlike the Oscars, have special musical-comedy categories for lead performances and best film, we have two winners here — and a firm two-man race. First, there’s George Clooney, whose vulnerable work in “The Descendants” is the sort of thing Oscar voters nominate. (But is it a “big” enough performance to win?) Then, moncler jackets cheap there’s the charming Jean Dujardin, the star of “The Artist,” a picture that has the potential for the kind of surprising showing “Life is Beautiful” once pulled off. Both are sure of nods. Dark horses? Brad Pitt leads that pack for “Moneyball,” Leonardo DiCaprio (“J. Edgar”) and Michael Fassbender (“Shame”) bring up the rear.

Best actress: Putting “My Week With Marilyn” in the comedy-or-musical category simply because it had a few songs was a strange stretch — but at least it allowed the Globes room to award Michelle Williams’ lovely performance. And dramatic winner Meryl Streep has a guaranteed nomination for her turn in “The Iron Lady,” and is likely to get the Oscar too, if voters can get past their strange reluctance to give her a much-deserved third award. Rounding out the possibles? The marvelous Viola Davis for “The Help” with — far behind — Tilda Swinton for “We Need to Talk About Kevin” and Glenn Close for “Albert Nobbs.”

Best director: The Golden Globe to Martin Scorsese for “Hugo” was a warm salute to a great filmmaker — and not the only prize he’s picked up this year. He’ll get a nomination for sure, but an Oscar win — only five years after “The Departed” — seems unlikely. Expect attention to go to Alexander Payne for “The Descendants,” Woody Allen for “Midnight in Paris” and Michael Hazanavicius for “The Artist,” too. The fifth slot is a three-way scuffle among Steven Spielberg for the feel-good “War Horse,” David Fincher for the feel-sick “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo,” and Terrence Malick for the mystical “The Tree of Life,” but Fincher may have the edge. A winner? Too soon to even guess a front-runner in this one.

Best picture: Like the Globes’ best actor category, this one came down to “The Descendants” and “The Artist.” Both will surely be Oscar-nominated, and its genuinely unique approach probably gives “The Artist” an inside track for the win. (Members might be able to fool themselves into thinking they could easily make a film like “The Descendants”;cheap moncler something like “The Artist” seems far more rare, and therefore prizeworthy.) As for the rest of the titles — which could go to 10 nominations this year, but will probably top out around seven or eight — expect “The Help,” “Hugo,” “Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close,” “War Horse,” “The Tree of Life” and “Moneyball” to pad the list, without really complicating the race.

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